TNM didn’t tell you everything.
TNM staging answers: “How far has it spread?” Molecular risk stratification answers: “Is it likely to have spread, undetected?”
These are two different questions. Now pathology can answer both.
The Limitation Isn’t Your Diagnosis, It’s the Staging System
The result is a complete diagnostic picture that gives the surgeon and the medical oncologist what they need to act.
How RiskReveal Works
RiskReveal is a 14-gene mRNA expression assay applied to FFPE tumor tissue from resected non-squamous NSCLC. It classifies patients as molecular high- or low-risk for recurrence and death, independent of TNM stage, tumor size, and EGFR mutation status. Its most important difference is its extensive prognostic validation and now its predictive validation based on the only prospective randomized study to demonstrate the benefit of adjuvant therapy even for patients with TNM stage IA disease.
The Science Behind the Assay

The foundational study, published in The Lancet in 2012, identified 11 prognostic genes from a pool of more than 200 candidates using samples from 337 patients with resected non-squamous NSCLC at UCSF. A 14-gene mRNA expression assay (11 genes + 3 reference controls) was developed and underwent two independent, fully blinded, international validations involving over 1,400 patients.
On multivariate analysis, a high-risk molecular designation was the strongest predictor of 5-year mortality in both cohorts, outperforming age, sex, smoking history, histology, tumor size, and TNM stage. The assay also outperformed NCCN high-risk criteria in identifying at-risk stage I patients and independently stratified stage IA, IB, II, and III patients, demonstrating prognostic power beyond conventional staging alone.

A follow-up study published in JAMA in 2012 examined risk stratification specifically in a subset of stage I patients with tumors smaller than 2 cm, the patients most likely to be dismissed as low-risk by conventional criteria.
The 5-year mortality rate in this very-early-stage population was 28.6%, nearly 1 in 3 patients conventionally presumed to be surgical cures. RiskReveal identified a high-risk population within this group whose 5-year survival was only 52%, similar to stage IIB.
Adding the molecular risk category to a 1.5 cm tumor size cutoff increased the C-statistic from 0.57 to 0.68, a clinically meaningful improvement in prognostic discrimination. For the smallest tumors (≤1 cm), high-risk patients experienced 5-year mortality of 67%, a rate entirely obscured by TNM staging alone.
A quarter of stage IA patients experience recurrence or death within five years. Molecular risk stratification identifies the patients likely to be in that quarter.

A prospective non-randomized, single-center study of 250 patients at UCSF directly tested whether molecular risk stratification could guide adjuvant chemotherapy decisions. Patients were classified by both molecular risk and NCCN criteria. Treatment decisions were made by patients and their oncologists.
5-Year Disease Free Survival by Risk Classification5-Year Disease Free Survival by Risk Classification
| Classification | Low-Risk (untreated) | High-Risk (untreated) | High-Risk (treated) | p |
| Molecular (RiskReveal) | 94.6% | 72.4% | 97.0% | <0.001 |
Molecular risk stratification was statistically significant in predicting treatment benefit. High-risk patients who received chemotherapy based on molecular classification achieved DFS nearly identical to low-risk patients: 97.0% (high-risk, treated) vs. 94.6% (low-risk, untreated), vs. 72.4% for high-risk, untreated.

AIM-HIGH is the Phase 3 randomized, multicenter, international confirmation of the predictions contained in the validation and earlier prospective studies. Across 45 sites in the US and Europe, molecularly high-risk stage IA–IIA non-squamous NSCLC patients were randomized to adjuvant platinum-doublet chemotherapy or resection alone.
Key Outcomes
| Population | Treated DFS (24-mo) | Untreated DFS (24-mo) | Risk Reduction |
| High-risk stage IA–IIA | 96% | 79% | 78% (HR 0.22) |
| High-risk stage IA only | 98% | 78% | 85% (HR 0.15) |
Molecular risk was independent of EGFR mutation status. Chemotherapy-related mortality was 1%.
On timing:
All recurrences in the treated arm occurred when chemotherapy was initiated more than 3.5 months post-diagnosis. Pathology-integrated ordering at the time of resection diagnosis maintains your normal reporting workflow and keeps the patient well within the actionable treatment window.
RiskReveal vs. Blood-Based MRD Testing
Your Role in the Complete Diagnostic Picture
Ordering & Logistics
Sample Requirements
Turnaround Time
Results available within 7-10 days of specimen receipt, generally sooner.
Insurance Coverage & Resources
Insurance & Patient Access
For Your Colleagues
Shareable with tumor board, oncology partners, and referring physicians.